Lies, #@%*$# Lies, and Opinion Polls - - How The CBS News Poll Inflates Obama’s Lead
About the Author: I am an ex-urbanite who escaped the city life and has lived for the past 27 years in a rural, mountainous area of Virginia that in colonial and early-American times was part of the "Backcountry." Politics: Democrat by tradition, but moderate-to-conservative views on most issues; I fit the description of "traditionalist." Please visit my Web site, Backcountry Notes, at http://www.backcountrynotes.com/ Read more from this authorThe CBS News - New York Times poll released on September 23 is yet another MSM product which juggles the numbers to give Barack Obama an inflated lead. The poll results show Obama with a 13-point lead, but the numbers have been rigged by the use of unrealistic partisan weighting.
This is not an isolated incident. The Newsweek polls this year have been controversial; the most recent Newsweek effort, released on October 10, put Obama-Biden up by 11 points over McCain-Palin. Unlike most MSM polls, Newsweek (perhaps accidentally?) published its party-identification demographic, which was 27% Republican, 40% Democrat, 30% independent, and 3% other-don’t know-not interested. These figures represent too many Democrats and too few Republicans. The Rasmussen partisan weighting numbers released on October 11 were: Democrats, 39.3%; Republicans, 33%; unaffiliated, 27.7%. Applying those partisan weighting numbers to the Newsweek October 10 poll, you get this result: Obama-Biden, 50.3%; McCain-Palin, 43.5%; for a difference of 6.8% - - NOT 11 per cent.
You can do the same kind of calculation for the October 23 CBS News - New York Times poll. The Rasmussen partisan weighting numbers released on October 18 are: Democrats, 39.7%; Republicans, 33%; unaffiliated, 27.3%. A data summary for the CBS New - New York Times poll is available here. Applying the Rasmussen partisan weighting numbers to the data results in these numbers: Obama-Biden 49.8, McCain-Palin 41.2, for a difference of 8.6 points - - NOT 13, as reported.
Granting that the result still has Obama ahead, a number of other polls show a much closer race than the 13 points that CBS News and the Times are claiming, and there is more than enough time for the McCain-Palin ticket to close the gap. So why isn’t reporting accurate polling numbers sufficient for the pro-Obama media outlets?
Perhaps to create a “bandwagon” effect to help their favorite candidate?
Perhaps because of polls like Gallup Tracking, which shows a tightening race:
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Lies, #@%*$# Lies, and Opinion Polls - - What Do The Polls Mean, If Anything?
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Funny, but even radical Right-wing Fox News’ Pollster Rasmussen shows Obama’s lead stable at 7 points this morning. Hotline shows Obama up 7. Zogby +10. Gallup actually has Obama up +6 among likely voters, so you fudged that number. in addition, two different sets of state polls show Obama whipping McCain in every battleground state. Next, you will tell us all how each and every pollster mentioned above is in collusion to elect Obama.
Maybe the TRUE story here is the desperation of Right-wingers like yourself - most of whom have resorted to parroting the now-discredited partisan IBD/TIPP poll that shows MCCAIN leading 18-24 year-olds by a 74-22 margin. McCain’s own party is turning against ITSELF - imploding, if you will.
Better luck in 2012…
http://democratictribune.com
Yawn. :roll:
“Gallup actually has Obama up +6 among likely voters, so you fudged that number.” Nope. Go read. The graph is straight out of the Gallup article.
Did read…you’re still fudging the numbers…here’s how:
You are using numbers from a 2004 likely voter model that doesn’t exist anymore. This is not a ‘traditional’ election, nor have the turnout models even remotely resembled 2004 during the primaries - even on the Republican side. The new likely voter model, which represents 2008, not 2004 - has Obama +6.
To Get Real.
be careful what you wish for! obama will destory this country and I would love to hear your comment then. to bad you did not use your thinking ablility before you voted for obama.
In 4 years, when everything is going great, Muslim extremists haven’t taken over America, small businesses are doing fine, taxes aren’t 50%, President Obama hasn’t imposed muslim law….you conspiracy conservatives are going to feel really silly.
Jane,
You’re suggesting that we should listen to the unsubstantiated hunch of someone that can’t spell, can’t capitalize and has no understanding of grammar, and commit to her vision of the future! Your credentials are evident and I’m sure you’ve just converted the masses to your cause, Gallup will no doubt show the McJane bounce tomorrow.
I particularly enjoyed “to bad you did not use your thinking ablility before you voted for obama.” - I know irony isn’t big in the States, but you are clearly a key protagonist in the artform and we’d like to see more of your “thinking ablility” (sic), whatever that may be. I’d like to see you on Mccain adverts, telling people all that’s wrong with Obama.
Let’s get this straight and get back to reality. Neither John Mccain or Barack Obama want anything but the best for the country. They are both patriots who care deeply enough about their country to have people like you constantly deriding them and go through their private life with a fine-tooth comb, making up the results if nothing compelling is forthcoming. You are disgraceful, attacking someone brave enough to run for the position is as disrespectful to the union as I believe you can get. Neither of them will destroy the country, and neither of them have all of the answers. That much I am certain of.
In the past 8 years a number of metrics have gone wildly out of control and we’ve developed a real “image problem”, which is a bad thing to have in a brand driven society that’s pushed most manufacturing jobs overseas. Someone has to pull those metrics back in to line and make the world believe America is great again, as far as I can see all you have to do is decide who is best equipped to do that. The deficit was created by the war, we all know that, but that money is going to have to be paid back at some point. Let’s be real here, the time for politics is coming to a close and the hard work will soon begin. Whoever wins will have the toughest presidency of all time, George Bush has spent the money, someone has to work out how to start paying it back.
If you think that’s Mccain then that’s fine, but 4 more years on the same course is clearly going to have devastating consequences. Both candidates will eventually have to raise taxes in order to pay for the deficit, that’s just a fact of life. Get used to less money, because that is just the reality of the way things are going - Barack knows this, so his plan makes provisions for the millions that will lose their jobs and homes in the coming years. Neither of them are horsemen of the apocalypse (although Mccain does have the look), saying any other just undermines your position and makes you sound ridiculous. I believe they will both work as hard as they can to solve the market crisis, but I believe Obama has more energy to achieve that. I think he’ll be able to work that extra hour a day, push himself that little be harder and have a few more global allies than Mccain could.
I know you don’t understand what I’m saying and have probably stopped reading because of all the words over 2 syllables. As such I’m left unsure as to why I’m trying to reason with you, but please try to have a little self-respect. I know it’s hard when so many people are saying so many outrageous things, but we all have to live together and we all need the next president to be as good as he can be, regardless of who he(/she?) is. All of these minor issues are unimportant and shows the latitude of the authors vision – the next president has to financially rescue America and most of what both candidates have said they will achieve will be secondary to this colossal issue. Neither man wants America to fail, both will put 100% in – but how much is their 100% respectively? Who would you pick in an endurance test?
Let me make this as clear as I can : if John Mccain is the next president I wish him the very best of luck in the job, because we need it. I’ve already voted for Obama and I think a Mccain presidency will be a folly, however, if he wins I truly hope that I’m wrong in that regard.
Let’s tone down the pesonalities, folks, and keep this in mind: Jane gets 1 vote; Braithwaite gets 1 vote; being a better speller gets you an “A” in sixth grade English.
From up way up here in the Canadian great expanse, all those different poll numbers sure read favoring the great one over the experienced one. Problem is all put together the polls at time seem to not be aware of the number differences. But all end up saying the same thing (which I take with a grain of salt): The great one is Always ahead by more than at least 5 or 6 points. But more than that. These poll numbers are quoted by news groups too often in a day to be believed. Reporting them every minute of the day does not give a voter any realistic sense of the numbers. :roll:
Two Ohio polls today Obama +10 McCain +3.
Ohio RCP average Obama +7
What I see in alomst every poll is an overstating of DEMOCRAT support for Obama (87-92%). A lot of those 18 million Clinton voters will vote for McCain especially Jews and non-Jewish males.
Neither one of the Ohio polls give sufficient underlying data for analysis. However, the one which has McCain +3 gives the following information:
The poll that has Obama +10 states:
There is a big difference between “voters” and “likely voters.” Obama has consistently been more popular with those who don’t vote.
Hate to make you look the fool, Jay…but about that McCain +3 in OH…
Ohio Strategic Vision (R) Obama 45, McCain 48 McCain +3
That little (R) next to the name of the pollster? Yeah, that stands for REPUBLICAN.
Now, please do keep whining about how the polls you hear about aren’t ‘fair’…
Take your pick and believe what you prefer:
McCain opens up lead in Ohio
Strategic Vision also has him now leading in Fla. http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/florida_poll_102408.htm And Rassmussen has him now leading in N.C. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election
Submitted By MrSpock - Oct 24, 12:54 pm 1 votes | VOTE
Ohio Moving Rapidly Toward Barack Obama
A new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll joins Battleground and Quinnipiac polling Obama ahead by double-digits. The new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll in OH has Obama leading McCain 52% to 42%.
Submitted By DemocraticTribune - Oct 24, 12:51 pm 1 votes | VOTE
Don’t worry about making me look the fool; just look out for your end.
Okay, so since Strategic Vision is Republican-affilliated, when it says that Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania - - see http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_102408.htm - - and Wisconsin - - see http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/wisconsin_poll_100208.htm - - and New Jersey - - see http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_100108.htm - - and elsewhere, then it is lying and McCain is actually leading in those states, right?
The fact that an organization caters to a specific party orientation doesn’t mean its polling methodology is bad; on the contrary, generating bogus polls would cost them clients. PPP is Democratic Party-oriented. Their headlines today include: “Barack Obama Up By A Single Point In Florida” and “John McCain has a solid lead in West Virginia.” See http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pppmain.asp?@spdT=B6B42829136845A69B19
But according to your logic, Obama is actually trailing in Florida and has a solid lead in West Virginia, right?
Hey Get Real,
That’s not what Jay’s saying - his only point seems to be that the Newsweek CBS/NYT poll is distorted towards Obama for political reasons. He may or may not be right, but I think it’s plausible. I just don’t think it’s very important - it doesn’t change the fact that the polls that you’ve quoted all give Obama a decent lead, he’s just picking out some outlier polls that he thinks may be inaccurate. I could do the exact same thing at the other end of the spectrum with the GWU/BG or IBD/Tipp, but I think it would be myopic - the bigger picture is far more important here.
Jay knows Mccain is going to lose, else he’d take me up on a $500 wager on the issue. We could all get more of a laugh with this thing and make it more exciting, instead of the daily straw-groping that goes on round here. What’s ironic about Jays tightening is the graph hes posted - Mccain is 1 point up at the end than he is at the beginning; whereas really it’s all moving around within the margin of error in a rather unspectacular fashion. Only a desperate man would call that tightening and then post it online for everyone to see.
I think folks round here are getting a bit poll obsessed and it feels like there are going to be plenty of bad losers - ignore the polls you feel have poor methodology by any means, but ignoring the overall trend is just fantastical.
There is a bigger picture; the Mccain blogosphere has gone negative crazy. This is perfect for Obama - when things look bleak people want hope, not fear and despair. Every day this site and hundreds of others like it keeps perpetuating negative messages on every subject, as such, they sound like whinging losers. We need more of this.
Keep up the good work Jay - your dismissal of reality is becoming quite charming. When you want to make this thing real, let me know, otherwise your ramblings about minor statistics makes hilarious reading!
I’m not sure why so many Obama supporters are compelled to turn every discussion into a personal vendetta, but I am sure that of you keep it up you’ll be spammed off of this site.
Jewish male Libertarian who has never voted for a Republican President in 30 years of voting will proudly cast his vote for John McCain to save America, his friends and his people worldwide.
Sorry, Barack. Your church passed the plate for Hamas and your friends hate Israel. I’m not talking a bomber like Bill Ayers, I’m talking a bomber like General McPeak.
I don’t care about any of the issues except survival at this point. You can’t have that abortion in that Manhattan clinic if Hezbollah gets there first. You won’t be able to afford that hybrid if the Great Liar destroys the economy.
Now vote, folks. I told my Jewish friends who just can’t vote Republican to vote Nader. A man who is honest about his plans and good humored about himself.
I am not afraid of Sarah Palin, though I disagree with her on much. I am not a Jew fighting the corpse of Jerry Falwell like so many of my chaverim. I KNOW who my enemies are TODAY.
I hope I can say one day I was part of the Pennsylvania Surprise.
God Bless America and John McCain.
If you think McCain has a snowball’s chance in hell then you have been drinking a little too much of the Fox New’s Kool-Aid. Instead of disputing the polls, you should be preparing to dispute the only poll that matters, which occurs on Nov. 4th. There are way more Democrats in this country than there are Republicans and low voter turnout is the only way a Republican could get elected national dog-catcher. I predict record turnouts and that John ‘W’ McCain will carry only parts of the red-neck south and of course the lily white plains states.
Bradshaw: Fox Poll has him down by 9. The most accurate poll of 2004, IPP, has a dead heat. Sure Fox has plenty of Kool Aid, but you seem to pick your brand of Kool Aid while completely blind.
The IBD/TIPP Poll has already been exposed for the fraud that it is…it’s been debunked by both:
http://fivethirtyeight.com
-and-
http://democratictribune.com
In short, it not only drastically undersamples the 18-24 vote, but it has McCain leading 74-22 with that group. Even the most ardent Republican water-carrier will admit that internal is a crock…and it was only the beginning of the fraud of that poll.
DUDE - - YOU’RE BUSTED!
“Get Real” = “Whatever”
:roll:
The IBD/TIPP Poll has already been exposed for the fraud that it is…it’s been debunked by both:
http://fivethirtyeight.com
-and-
http://democratictribune.com
In short, it not only drastically undersamples the 18-24 vote, but it has McCain leading 74-22 with that group. Even the most ardent Republican water-carrier will admit that internal is a crock…and it was only the beginning of the fraud of that poll.
You think people are going to tell some stranger they will vote for Mccain after what the media did to Joe the plumber and Sarah Palin?
Obama could not even win the majority of Democrats in the primaries.
another Jew who voted for Clinton voting for MCcain here.
Vote McCain/Palin!
The polls are satistical probabilities which can ONLY be based on the past performance of those who are likely or unlikely to vote. In ordinary times, (i.e., no worldwide economic crisis, no massive energy crisis, no U.S. specific credit/housing/banking crisis), the probabilities would likely stand pat. This would mean simply that the people polled, those who have always and will always vote, will carry the numbers straight on through to the voting booth.
However… This is not an ordinary election by any means. It is historic on at least one very obvious level, and will be drawing in vast numbers of voters who previously might have had an opinion but not gone in to vote. At the same time, those who are actually nervous that the traditional white male candidate might not be elected will also be coming out in greater numbers. What will happen will be unprecedented in the history of projections versus outcome. (Polls versus voter count).
My own prediction: Obama will win with a tidy lead that even the most grasping of Republicans can’t protest as fraud or balloting mistakes. (Neither of which ever seemed to bother Republicans in 2000 or in any of the elections which favored Republicans since that time — which have included several years with ACORN. Interesting how that outrage is conditional, eh?)
Ultimately it’s up to each citizen to cast their one vote, which is the only time their voice will actually be heard in this election; polls are just the scent on the wind. And quibbling about the numbers seems to happen only when a given person’s own candidate is behind.
Having said that, I like the way the numbers are looking right now, and I’ll be in there voting for Barack Obama on election day. God help us all if, by some fluke, John (”I helped mastermind Iran-Contra and made it possible for the Savings & Loan Scandals to happen”) McCain and that ditzy, ambitious, ethics-free prom queen sidekick of his are elected.
snooze, more liberal polls which will be wrong again. In every election the media polls are inaccurate. In the weeks leading up to the election the media DO push the dem numbers up in an attempt to deflate republican voters. In the end Mr. Obama may win, but it will not be close to the predicted margin. People still have to feel comfortable going into a voting booth and pulling the lever for a man they know nothing about since the media have buried his past and made no attempt to vet him. Instead, we will get more and more faux news stories from the AP who are still in Alaska dumpster diving instead of looking at Obama’s past.
More ‘liberal’ polls just released…
Politico/Insider Advantage: GA Obama +1
Gallup Daily Tracking: RV Obama +8, LV Obama +7
Yep…those ‘tightening’ polls at work again!
Be honest here, Righties: The only polls that show ANYTHING good for McCain have been released by conservative or conservative-leaning pollsters: Rasmussen (and even HE has Obama leading by 7), Strategic Vision, and IBD/TIPP.
By all HONEST accounts, Obama is running away with this thing.
It is best to allow the lefties their fantasies.
Already… new voter turnout is much less than they predicted.
But that is what happens when you are relying on a “non-traditional election” that is based on ACORN registrations. Many of those registrants do not actually exist, and will not vote.
Yet, they continue to extrapolate their percentages of Dems from them. :twisted:
Another factor they do not account for is that there are REAL Dems, called PUMAs, that won’t vote Obama. And may vote McCain. Yet… their numbers are counted into the percentage of Dems as well.
Fact is… nobody know WHAT the outcome of this election will be. And we won’t know… til the skinny lady in the high heels sings!